In this episode, Jason Hartman and Naresh talk about the impact of technology on inflation and the rate of change in inflation rates. Then, Jason explains how deflation affects the real estate market and reiterates that cash flow allows you to weather the downmarket storm. Increasing your knowledge and learning pertinent facts and figures will help you anticipate upcoming market changes.
This show is produced by the Hartman media company. For more information and links to all our great podcasts, visit Hartman media.com.
Welcome to the creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You’re about to learn a new slant on investing some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world’s most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self made multi millionaire who’s actually been there and done it. He’s a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who’s owned properties in 11 states had hundreds of tenants and been involved in 1000s of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason’s footsteps on the road to your financial independence day. You really can do it. And now here’s your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.
Jason Hartman 1:04
Welcome to the creating wealth show. This is your host, Jason Hartman. We are at episode number 557 557. Thank you so much for joining me today as we talk about several issues with my temporary co host and that is Mr. Naresh. He’s back on the show for is this the second time Naresh.
This is the second time this month, Jason. It’s a pleasure to be back on looking forward to some good discussion, discussion.
Jason Hartman 1:26
Are you on the show a long time ago? I think you were, right?
I was on about two years ago. And I remember that show very well, because we had an inflation deflation debate. And I told you some things that surprised you. I told you that I was a huge Bernanke key fan. This is one Bernanke he was leaving the Fed. I think he was leaving, like within the next two weeks that we ran that interview. And I also told you that deflation was coming. And you gave me some some heat for that. But that was about two years ago.
Jason Hartman 1:55
Well, so the question is, who is right now that we look back? I mean, I don’t know. I almost want to say I’m wrong. But I’m not because we’ve had a little bit of inflation. But man, it’s been so mild, that, you know, I hope I’m not like totally wrong on this prediction about inflation, because I was a pretty much an inflation bug A few years ago, and it boggles my mind, that they’ve been able to just, I mean, I know it’s baked into the cake, we know the inflation is baked into the cake. I mean, you’re you’re well, at least you were a bit of a gold bug. We’re gonna talk about that today. So we can we can address that one in a moment. But, you know, it’s it’s definitely from a monetary and fiscal perspective baked into the cake. The only thing that could overshadow that could be the, I’m gonna say, the trump card, because we’re gonna talk about Trump today is technology, as I’ve talked about many times, that’s the one that’s really hard to understand, you know, how big that impact of all of this incredible technology and this progress that were on the verge of what that impact will be. But, you know, I mean, we haven’t really had real deflation, right? I mean, I mean, you’re not gonna try and like collect on our bet, are you?
Well, we didn’t, we didn’t, we didn’t make a bet. But if you look at the inflation rate, so we spoke in probably late 2013, early 2014, and I’ll give you some data, January 2014, or we’ll take December 2013, the inflation rate was at 1.5%. So not, no major inflation. Compare that to when we actually saw major, not major, but we saw some inflation in 2011. After it appeared, we came out of the recession, we saw the effects of the bailouts and the stimulus packages in 2011, the inflation rate hit almost 4%, September 2011.
Jason Hartman 3:50
Okay, but but we do i do have to interrupt here, of course, and our vast majority of our listeners know, but in case you are new tuning into this show, those official stats are always understated, even in this environment. So I would say and, you know, feel free to disagree with me on this, Naresh. But I would say that you you have to assume that the real inflation rate is 50% higher than the official number. So they tell you, it’s 4% it’s really six. If they tell you it’s two, it’s really three. Okay, that’s what I’m saying.
Yeah, I’m not gonna argue with how the numbers are calculated, and said on a percentage basis. If you just look at the improvement, or you know the the decrease in inflation, that’s kind of what I look look at rather than the actual number itself. So same thing with unemployment, of course, the government calculates it their own way. And then you probably have john Williams on your show who runs shadow stats calculated, we have his own way. What I look at is I’m more interested in the I guess the chart rather than the actual number itself, right.
Jason Hartman 4:57
You’re looking at you’re looking at the the change the rate of Change
Exactly the rate of change.
Jason Hartman 5:02
Okay, so So tell the listeners why. And you know, of course, this is massively important to real estate investors, you know which way this goes. And I’ve shared my scenarios and my plans. And you know, with income property being a multi dimensional asset class, the beautiful thing is you can adjust your strategy, regardless of the environment, inflation being the home run, the best thing, especially a lot of inflation being the home run for real estate investors, deflation being something that you’re, you know, By comparison, you’re going to do probably better than most everybody else. But again, it’s not gonna be a home run in stagnation, we’re just kind of nothing happens, then you’ll you’ll be better off than everybody else. But again, certainly not a home run like the the inflationary environment is the home run.
Well, it that we had our little debate back in, I think, December 2013. Now, fast forward, today, I gave you the number back then it was at 1.5%, the inflation rate,
Jason Hartman 6:02
Maybe this needs to be a flashback Friday show. We’ll have the audience vote. Who won.
Yeah. And now fast forward, the latest number that the government put out for June of this year 2015, the inflation rate is almost at zero that the official number is at point 1%. Most of 2015 has been in negative territory. So there’s actually been a good amount of deflation in 2015. And the latest projections for the July number. There. They’re saying that July was the most deflationary month that the United States has has faced since 2009. So we’ll see what that number ends up being. But I think deflation is is the worry right now, not just in the United States, but globally. That’s why China is doing all sorts of stimulation into its economy. Greece got another bailout. And all this could end up or it will end up, in my opinion, delaying when the Federal Reserve raises its interest rates. I think they were supposed to do it in September. Now it looks looking like that’s going to be delayed because of this deflationary pressure. So I’m curious, Jason, what are your thoughts on this? And what does this mean, for real estate moving forward?
Jason Hartman 7:26
Yeah. So first of all, interestingly, and I just read this this morning, believe it or not, Greece, the Greek economy actually grew in the last quarter. I mean, it’s amazing, right? You know, you look at what’s going on, and you think, you know, how can the economy possibly be growing in Greece, it actually did grow slightly. So that’s incredible. But my thoughts are, like I said, it’s baked into the cake from a fiscal and monetary perspective, the fact that we haven’t had more inflation. It kind of amazes me and the fact that we still are the reserve currency of the world amazes me, but at least I understand why that is true. And it’s because we have the biggest economy, the biggest military, and a lot of weight to throw around in the world and, you know, forcing other other countries to take our dollars and keep it as the reserve currency. But in terms of real estate, you know, in a deflationary environment, the whole game is about yield, or a stagnation environment, either one, or stagflation, I should say, it’s all about yield. So then the income property asset becomes a cash flow type of asset, a cash on cash return asset. And if you look on the performers at Jason hartman.com, in the Properties section, just pick any property in there, and you’re likely to see cash on cash returns projected anywhere from you know, in this, I’m just kind of guesstimating here what they are, because I’m not looking at it, but anywhere from maybe eight to 12% annually as a cash on cash return, maybe even 14% annually on some of those performance. But if you see that, you know, that just shows you Naresh as long as you maintain the same income and expense ratio on a property. Even if the property goes down in value, even if the value is cut in half, you still have the yield. And in that environment, remember, economics is a relative game. It’s it’s not that you need to make you know 100% annually, you just need to do better than everybody else because the the marketplace and the entire economy although there is a lag time and by the way, the lag time concept is what kills people. Okay, everything ultimately adjusts. It just takes time for it to play out. And the people that get killed are the people who don’t in real estate have staying power, or in any other investments have staying power. And it reminds me of that sort of famous old quote, you know, where the stock market investor complains, well, the market is irrational, I’m right. And someone says to him, well, I have news for you, the market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent. And so, so so that’s the key. So for the real estate investor, if you can maintain somewhere close to that income and expense ratio on your property, regardless if the value is going up or down. Now, I mean, it’s hard to argue, I mean, it’s pretty much impossible to argue that real estate has been deflating, because it’s been inflating a lot over the past few years. So there’s definitely inflation there. But real estate prices aren’t directly in the consumer price index, I believe it’s called This is from memory, the rental equivalent value or something like that. And they have this equation for working out how much housing expense influences the CPI. But now you might be thinking, well, Jason, now this is a good question. Okay. Well, Jason, if we do have a lot of deflation, and say that deflation affects real estate prices, which, by the way, the trend has been the complete opposite the last several years, coming out of the Great Recession, there’s been quite a bit of real estate inflation, especially in the cyclical markets that I believe are in a bubble. They’re in bubble territory, I believe. And those will adjust to maybe they’ve overstepped. So you know, what happens? Well, if the values go down, won’t the rents go down? And the answer to that question is may be, here’s why. You got to really dice this up. Remember, when I talk about creating wealth seminars, I talk about my three dimensions of real estate. And there are really more than three dimensions. But that just sounds good. So I call it the three dimensions. Two of those dimensions are rent, in other words, what you can rent the property for, and another dimension being the value of the property. So if values decline, all the renters out there think, Well, I’m not going to buy because the markets declining. And this is the way markets act in stocks and precious metals and real estate. This is just the nature of markets in general, where the little guy always gets in or out too late. If we were looking at a chart right now, and you like looking at charts Naresh. And you see, you know, you see the chart go up and you see it go down, you know, the little guy never buys in the trough, and never sells at the peak, it just does not happen. That’s not the way markets act, because there’s this lag time of media. So the there the little guy is all bathed in the stew of media out there. And they’re reading articles, oh, Real Estate’s going through the roof. It’s the best market in years. And you know, they got to get bathed in that for a while before they react. Okay. And by the time they react, you know, you’re, you’re approaching a bubble. That’s typically how it works. So the little guy always acts way too late. Okay, that’s just the nature of the beast, it happens in pretty much every market. And every cycle, you can see it over and over, it just always repeats itself. And similarly the thing, same thing happens on a downturn, you know, as, as the price of whatever it is widgets, houses, stocks, precious metals is going down. The little guy always says, Well, you know, I’m gonna hold on a little longer, see if it comes back up. And then you know, they usually end up getting discouraged at the, you know, at the trough near the bottom, and then they sell and they lose money. Okay, so this is what happens. And this is why you need to practice what I call sustainable investing. Because if you have cash flow, then you can weather the storm you’re never forced to sell at an inopportune time. And similarly, stay married. Because if you are married, and I’m not, but I’m looking, and I know you’re looking too, right Naresh?
I don’t know about marriage. I don’t know about marriage. That’s for that’s very different show. So.
Jason Hartman 14:22
Okay, okay. Well, you seem to be pretty motivated. You know, when you talk about your dating life, so, but what was I talking about? Now? We got off on a tangent. Oh, yeah. Do not get divorced in a down market. That’s my lesson. because it forces you to liquidate assets at the wrong time. Okay, only get divorced at the peaks, right. So time your divorces, that’s what I always say. But that’s what happens. So the little guy as the market is going down, usually continues to quite happily rent. Okay? If they’re a renter, you know and what i’m talking About as the little guy that’s renting now, and you move into a market cycle where the real estate prices are going down, and the little guy stays and says, Well, why would I buy now? Prices are going down. And that guy has to get bathed in that media bath for a long time. And then he hears Oh, now prices are going up, you know, a couple years later, the cycle switches, and here’s prices are going up. And he says, oh, wow, maybe I should think about buying. And then he thinks about it for a while. And he hears a lot more news and time goes by. And then you know, everybody’s making multiple offers on property, things are going nuts. They’re going absolutely crazy. It’s getting frothy, you can you know, if you’re paying attention, and you’re smart, and you’re educated, you know, it’s a bubble, right? And then the little guy finally jumps in. And it’s not at the top, usually, but it’s near the top that the largest amount of people get motivated to buy. You know, you saw this in tulip mania in Holland, what, a couple centuries ago. It just happens in every market. This is the way it works. This is the way you know the way markets interplay with human psychology. So the answer to the question, that was really the question, is you’ve got to make sure you follow my commandment number five of the 10 commandments, Thou shalt not gamble. The property must make sense the day you buy it, or you don’t buy it. And that cash flow is pretty reliable. Appreciation and depreciation. They are darn hard to predict. And I have never met or heard of any guru, or known anybody that can truly accurately predict those cycles. Nobody. Okay. Not Bruce Norris, not the guy in San Diego, Robert Campbell, I think is his name. You know, not any of these gurus not Harry dent. Okay, who’s been on many times, but I tell you, though, maybe his oil prediction is coming true. And maybe his gold prediction is going to come true. So we can go off on those tangents if you like. So the answer to your question is, it becomes a game of yield in a deflationary environment where you just sit back and you collect your yield. And in that environment, every other investment is probably not yielding. So, you know, economics being a relative game, if your net worth is $100. Okay, and your neighbor’s net worth is $75 or $50. You’re rich, okay. It’s not about the the the nominal prices, it’s about the relative prices. Okay, and the relative yields. So if everybody else in this deflationary environment is only getting basically what they’re getting now, okay, in the bank, you can get a half a percent maybe give or take in the stock market. You know, most people can see that’s a bubble. Of course, you have dividend paying stocks, precious metals are down, you know, where are you going to get yield. And this is why everybody is rushing toward income property. It’s becoming this giant cottage industry, because it’s the only thing that makes sense. And I don’t think we can say we’re in a deflationary environment. We’re in an environment the past couple years of very low inflation, surprisingly,
now, I don’t expect the Fed to raise rates when they come out in September, but I do think in early 2016, there will be a rate hike. What will that mean to income property investors?
Jason Hartman 18:37
Okay, so if there is a rate hike, first of all, the Fed doesn’t control long term rates. Okay. So they don’t control mortgage rates directly. But of course, the tone of the Fed does set markets, there’s no, there’s no question about it. I don’t think anybody could argue with that. But they don’t directly control mortgage rates. Okay. So if that happens, remember that three dimensions of real estate concept people that are in marketplaces only have three choices. They can buy, they can rent, or they can be homeless, maybe three and a half choices they can live with their parents. Okay. You know, is, is is a definite truth of your generation, Generation Y generation, right?
Yes, it is pretty common 30 year olds living with their parents.
Jason Hartman 19:24
Oh, yeah. No, I know, it’s way too common. But But anyway, so you have that situation. And that’s the choices they face. So if rates are high, that means that puts housing affordability is usually lower in that high rate environment. So it’s harder for them to qualify harder for them to buy. It definitely has the effect of overall softening real estate prices, which, you know, if you’re a capital gains investor and a speculator, you definitely don’t like that. But if you’re an income investor, usually when housing affordability is low, we see upward pressure on rents. And the reason I say Usually, uh, not always is because of this. I know, I’m hedging that a little bit, I get that. And maybe you notice that in my language is because during the Great Recession, I’ll start this in about 2007 for three years in there between 2007 2010. Oddly, because of all the workouts and the loan modifications, I mean, that was bad. Usually a recessions not gonna be that bad. Okay, that was the worst economy we had in seven decades, everybody knows. But in that time, we didn’t see much upward pressure on rents. In fact, we saw some minor softening and rents, because the government stepped in too much. And we had an election in 2008. And all the talk was, Oh, we’ve got to keep people in their houses. But no one ever asked the question, are they living in a house that they really can’t afford, don’t deserve. And it’s too much house, ie, the school teacher who got a no income dock loan, and they make $65,000 per year, and they somehow bought an $800,000 house, like, explain that, to me. It’s psychotic, of course, right? But that kind of stuff was happening. So the talk was, well, let’s just keep everybody in their house. And so there was so much pressure on the banks to do loan modifications and workouts, and short sales after, after all, was considered that, you know, you have a lot of people living in their house for free, there are still people living in their house for free in the judicial foreclosure states, like Florida and Illinois, right, that it’s just insane. I mean, they got to kick them out and let the market clear and let price discovery occur. That’s a key term price discovery. Okay. So remember, multi dimensional asset class always gives you an opportunity to play the game in different ways. You didn’t ask what if the opposite happens? So I just want to talk about that real quickly. So what if, what if rates stay low, and housing affordability is good, and say the economy improves and wages actually go up, which hasn’t happened in quite a long time, in any real way. And so say that houses look cheap, well, then then the rents soften, but the prices go up, I see non correlating indicators on the multi dimensional asset class. So when that happens, tenants rush out, and they try to buy a house. And so you lose your tenants, your rents soften, and you got to accept lower rents, because there’s downward pressure on rents, when it’s a market where everybody’s trying to buy. So if that happens, your strategy is pay, my value is going up, I feel good refi till you die, or even sell the property if you want. But, again, I don’t often recommend selling. I definitely like the buy and hold philosophy. But you could sell into a 1031 exchange, and defer your taxes into a lower price, more linear type market. And the example there would be that, say, for example, in 2004, you bought something possibly from you know, for me, right? Okay, for my group, it was in Phoenix, and then those prices went way up. And then you sold Phoenix got a capital gain, although your rents were softening and Phoenix at the same time, because everybody was buying, okay. And you sold on a 1031 tax deferred exchange, and then you bought properties. In other more linear markets. At that time, we would have had you buy in Dallas, Houston or Austin, right? Or maybe Charlotte or Atlanta, or Indianapolis, and you would have, you would have moved into the more linear market with better cash flow, stronger rents, and you would have had a nice capital gain. So you, you probably would have been able to take that one Phoenix property and buy two in these markets. And you see how this is just such the ultimate wealth greater. You got you had no tax consequence. You improved your cash flow, took a capital gain, win, win, win, okay, boom, real estate investors. Just, that’s why that’s why you know, so many people who got rich in real estate, and nobody seems to know anybody who did it in the stock market. That’s not an insider. Does that answer the question?
Oh, yeah, that was a great answer. And I think it was complete because he also talked about rates stay low. Now I don’t expect rates to to stay low, but it’s good to know, kind of what would happen if that if that were the case.
Jason Hartman 24:43
We’ll see. Hey, we’re, of course going along, as we always do. I want to postpone the talk on Mr. Donald Trump. But I do want to talk about because it relates to this discussion more gold and oil and China just for a few minutes if we can. But first, I definitely want to encourage listeners to join us in San Diego. If you like these concepts we talked about, we’ve got Jason Hartman University live a two day event in San Diego in the Mission Valley area, and it’s coming up quickly. Okay, so go to Jason hartman.com. Register for that, my ethical bribe is, if you want 30% off of that two day event, email a write a review on iTunes or Stitcher Radio for us. And email the screenshot to us at reviews at Jason hartman.com reviews, with an S, it’s plural reviews, reviews at Jason hartman.com. And we will email you back a promo code for 30% off, we really appreciate you writing reviews for the shows. And we would much appreciate that. So do that. And then right after that, you can go to Jason hartman.com and register for the event with that 30% off promo code. And then of course, we’ve got our super high end luxury event at the end of September about a month later. That is the venture Alliance. The second trip for the venture alliance in stunning, spectacular, Newport, Rhode Island, some of the biggest mansions in the world, definitely the biggest mansions, or the most ornate and incredible and opulent mansions in America and have Wow, that’s gonna be a great event. You know, we’re going to be hanging out with real estate entrepreneurs. And I’m lining up a couple of good speakers for that event. And we’re going to tour the mansions we’re going to have five star dining and venture alliances my mastermind group, it’s pretty exclusive. It’s real high end. So you can check that out at Jason hartman.com. Or ask your investment counselor about that. And we can give you more information about that. But those two events coming up. Okay, no rush. What about gold oil China? In just a few minutes here, what do you want to talk about there?
Okay. Yeah, that’s a lot of stuff. So let’s start with gold. Gold, gold ties in more with what you just you just discussed on inflation fed rate hike and all that gold right now is out about the price is at about 1115. That’s $1,115. And I’m curious to hear your thoughts in general about gold because you’ve been pro inflation. I’m not pro inflation, but you’ve been thinking that there would be inflation and gold is generally tied to inflation. So if you look at a chart of inflation, in a chart of gold, you see that there’s a very strong correlation between the two. Of course, we talked earlier about right now being a very deflation of deflationary environment, which is
Jason Hartman 27:47
No. No. I’m not gonna let you say that on the show. It’s not a very deflationary environment. It’s a we are in an environment with very modest inflation, except in real estate. Okay. I mean, real estate in the cyclical markets has been inflating a lot. Atlanta is even, you know, that’s a linear market that went up 10% last year. Okay. You look at some of the really cyclical markets like South Florida, California, the northeastern the expensive areas in the northeast, and there are way more than that. Okay. So, we it’s not, we don’t have deflation. Okay. I’m just, I mean, do you think we have deflation? Really? I mean, was that is that your stance? I’m just curious. Like, we didn’t really settle on that.
So compared to 2009. The the deflation not even close. Now, I guess I was wrong and saying we’re in a very deflationary environment. But
Jason Hartman 28:40
Let me interrupt you, though. In 2009. Food inflation was high consumer products inflation, except for technology based ones was was pretty high. Okay. So we had real estate. Now that’s interesting, by the way, counter cyclical, maybe. Real estate deflation from the Great Recession. But inflation in a lot of other items. I mean, food inflation was was pretty bad in 2008 2009. Oddly,
Yeah. Well, again, I guess I’m talking more about the rate of change, and overall, deflation as a whole and inflation as a whole. And what you said was, I guess, stagnant inflation or low inflation environments. And so going back to gold, I’m curious to hear your thoughts why it is if inflation is supposedly coming, or if we even had inflation. Why has gold just been tanking so much over the past four years?
Jason Hartman 29:37
And why am I not telling all my listeners to go out and buy gold? Right? Well, first of all, I gotta say, Oh, my God, do we really need to talk about gold again? And the reason I say that, and you may not have even listened to some of these old episodes Naresh, but we have talked about gold. So extensively. I even told my listeners, this was a while back that I was going to shut up and stop talking about gold. But I haven’t talked about it in a while. So it’s kind of worth talking about. And you know, gold is is a measuring stick. Gold is money. I don’t think it’s a very good investment. There’s a good blog article on Jason hartman.com, you can probably find, you could just probably Google it. I think it’s called like seven reasons real estate is better than gold or something like that. It doesn’t produce income. It’s just not a good asset class in any way. I don’t know, we don’t have time to really go into it in much detail here. So just understand. Let’s let’s take that up on the next episode. No rush. We’re at 32 minutes already. There’s just too much to talk. It’s going to take us too long to talk about
Agree. Like you said, gold, oil, China, there’s too much. So we’ll
Jason Hartman 30:41
Yeah, absolutely. Okay. So listeners, we got a lot coming up on that. And I definitely want to get to that. And we’ve got a lot of stuff in the back catalogue on that topic. So there’s a lot there on gold. And I’ve talked about it extensively. And you know what, it has been a while Naresh. So I am glad you brought it up. And you know, next couple episodes, we’ll get to the gold, oil, China topic. And by the way, it’s interesting because oil is down again. And that’s been fairly deflationary. So we’ll, we’ll talk about that. And we’ll see if Harry dent is going to be right about that stuff. Okay, listeners, thank you for joining us today. Go to Jason hartman.com. Join us for our two upcoming events. JHU live Jason Hartman University live in San Diego. And also, you can talk to us about venture Alliance, our mastermind group, we’d love to talk to you about that. And we will look forward to talking to you on the next episode. Happy investing to everyone. Thanks for joining me.
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This show is produced by the Hartman media company All rights reserved for distribution or publication rights and media interviews, please visit www dot Hartman media.com or email media at Hartman media.com. Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax legal real estate or business professional for individualized advice. opinions of guests are their own. And the host is acting on behalf of Platinum properties, investor network, Inc. exclusively.